Our tipster Jones Knows attacks the first Premier League fixtures of 2023…
Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea, New Year’s Day 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 TO WIN £250,000!
The match prices look about right to me with Chelsea likely to get the job done at odds-on with that extra quality in the final third, but Forest will be digging in and creating problems for the Londoners at various points.
One area that may prove fertile for them is set-pieces.
I thought Chelsea looked shaky when defending their box under pressure from corners and free-kicks against Bournemouth, with the Cherries creating a healthy 0.29 worth of expected goals via set-pieces with Lloyd Kelly and Dominic Solanke both missing the target from close range. Since Graham Potter took charge, Chelsea’s overall defensive metrics from set-pieces are nosediving. They have shipped 33 shots from such scenarios to an expected goals backdrop of 3.18 – only six teams have a worse output from the day Potter took over.
With that in mind, it’s certainly worth looking at the Forest centre-backs to threaten.
Since Joe Worrall and Willy Boly have been paired together four games ago, they have had eight shots between them and that’s not including Boly’s disallowed goal against Manchester United.
Worrall is 13/8 with Sky Bet and Boly is 2/1 to have at least one shot in the player shots market. Both those prices look big – and I’ll be backing the 4/5 on offer for either to have at least one shot vs Chelsea as part of my 3/1 New Year’s Day double.