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By Lewis Jones, @_LJones_
After four correct results from four on Tuesday, including tipping the 0-0 between Chelsea and Liverpool at 11/1, Jones Knows foresees another stumble for Man Utd.
Manchester United vs Brentford, Wednesday 8pm
Bravery will be required if backing Manchester United at odds-on here following their performance at St James’ Park. Cracks are starting to appear, especially without the influence of Casemiro, who remains suspended.
For a team that were being talked about as a potential outside shot for the title a few weeks back, United’s record at defending set-pieces is rather eye opening. They have shipped 120 shots from such situations this season – only Bournemouth (137) have conceded more. In their last seven Premier League games, an opposition centre-back has managed to register a shot on United’s goal. You can rest assured this area of weakness will have been noticed by set-piece kings Brentford, whose record from such situations in terms of goals scored (12) is only bettered by Tottenham (13) this season.
Ethan Pinnock is usually the first point of contact from Brentford’s long throws and deliveries into the box and he’s been turning his healthy touches in the box ratio into shots and goals of late. He has scored twice in the last five games and somehow failed to score from a chance that was recorded as 0.72 worth of an expected goal vs Everton. The 11/8 with Sky Bet for him to have at least one shot is dripping with potential, as is the 66/1 first goalscorer price.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
West Ham vs Newcastle, Wednesday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
Joe Willock is just how I like my bacon: streaky.
When he’s got the taste of goals, he is a player to follow as identified by his run of scoring in seven consecutive matches during his loan spell with Newcastle in the 21/22 campaign. There have been two other occasions of him scoring back-to-back for the Toon, the latest of which came in November last year when finding the net against Southampton and Chelsea.
Eddie Howe utilises Willock to maximum potential by allowing him the freedom to get into dangerous positions in the box to convert from the ample amount of quality wide play that comes in from Kieran Trippier. His goal against Manchester United at the weekend was a case in point. That level of impact can be seen through his touches in the opposition box data – 3.7-per-90 over the last three seasons against a backdrop of a 1.7 shots per-90.
In his last three matches, he has posted 11 shots and I would be expecting him to trouble West Ham – a team he’s flourished against before, scoring twice and having a goal disallowed (in the 1-1 draw earlier this season) from just 177 minutes on the pitch.
His shots prices of two or more at 11/10, three or more at 7/2 and the 10/1 for him to score are all superb prices to attack.