Watch free Premier League highlights of all matches just after full time; watch Nottingham Forest vs Brentford & Fulham vs Chelsea all live on Sky Sports
By Lewis Jones, Football Journalist
Jones Knows is backing a longshot in the Super Sunday clash between Nottingham Forest and Brentford…
Nottingham Forest vs Brentford, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Thomas Frank is a savvy operator who knows how to puzzle solve but the balance hasn’t looked quite right this season with his Brentford side. They’ve only beaten Fulham across all competitions in 90 minutes and when you factor in how hard Nottingham Forest are to beat at home, losing just two of their last 17 matches at the City Ground, the 6/4 with Sky Bet on an away win does look skinny. Forest on the draw no bet market at 10/11 looks backable to me.
Give me a longshot any day of the week though – and I’d rather take a chance on the 50/1 first goalscorer price of Aaron Hickey for Brentford. The Scottish full-back is now a mainstay in this Brentford side, starting the last 11 Premier League games, and is developing in the usual way you’d expect when playing under Frank.
His attacking output from his full-back position is spiking, too. He’s had seven shots at goal in his last five games, including testing Nick Pope with a strike from a tight angle in the 1-0 defeat at Newcastle. And even though he’s never scored for the Bees, one might be around the corner with the 50/1 too good to ignore this weekend.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Aaron Hickey to score first (50/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Fulham vs Chelsea, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
As someone who puts lots of emphasis on the underlying numbers when making assessments of teams, this fixture is troubling me. All the data is telling me to back Chelsea at Evens with Sky Bet but my eyes tell me otherwise. I’m torn.
Fulham are a team I rarely have faith in due to their constant defying of their performance data. The quality of chance they offer up to the opposition equates to 1.79 worth of expected goals per 90 – it’s a figure that should have them rated as a relegation-threatened side and hasn’t improved this season. Southampton were relegated with an expected goals-against record of 1.63 per 90 last season.
Sky Sports’ Gary Cotterill and Ron Walker discuss why Chelsea’s victory over Brighton could prove to be a turning point for Mauricio Pochettino’s side.
Marco Silva’s side have conceded 3.5 goals fewer than their expected goals faced this season – that’s the highest in the Premier League. They are at it again.
I have been convinced a regression to the mean is coming with Fulham in terms of their results dropping to a level associated with a relegation team, but they remain defiant, even since losing Aleksander Mitrovic. They even lost the expected goals battle to Luton at home and still won the game. My mind has been boggled by Silva’s side.
And then you have Chelsea, who the underlying numbers suggest they have been very unfortunate in making the club’s worst-ever start after six games in a Premier League season based on expected goals both for and against, which ranks them sixth for expected goals for and third for expected goals against.
Mauricio Pochettino’s men have created better chances than their opponents in all six Premier League games this season.
What to do then? Trust the numbers? Or go with my gut which is telling me to swerve Chelsea? Numbers wins.