Match highlights of every Premier League game to be shown on the Sky Sports website and app just after full-time; watch Crystal Palace vs Manchester City, Fulham vs Arsenal and Newcastle vs Wolves live on Sky Sports
By Lewis Jones, @_LJones_
Jones Knows sees problems for Tottenham and Manchester City this weekend as he unleashes his betting analysis on the 10 Premier League fixtures.
Crystal Palace vs Manchester City, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports
Such is Crystal Palace’s current malaise of being nine games without a win added to Manchester City being Manchester City, the market is dominated by Pep Guardiola’s side who are 1/3 with Sky Bet for victory.
However, when Palace play under the lights at Selhurst Park, my tendency is to get them on my side – the great old ground can rock like no other can and genuinely can make a huge difference. Since Patrick Vieira took charge, Palace have played 13 fixtures at home in games kicking off at 5.30pm or later and they have lost just three times, including avoiding defeat to Manchester City last season in a 0-0 draw. Newcastle, Liverpool and Manchester United also all failed to beat Palace under those conditions this season so the market may have failed to give Palace the respect they probably deserve at home. The 9/4 for them to avoid defeat is a tempter.
Backing the draw and under 2.5 goals at 5/1 with Sky Bet should provide you with a better run for your money than the odds suggest.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Fulham vs Arsenal, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports
This fixture has fallen at the perfect time for Arsenal and I’m expecting them to dispatch Fulham without too much fuss.
Joao Palhinha is missing with suspension again for the hosts and his influence was sorely missed at Brentford last Monday whilst Aleksandar Mitrovic didn’t look overly interested in that encounter. It was a performance more in keeping with Fulham’s underlying numbers this season that have pointed to a huge overachievement in terms of their results.
Fulham’s expected goals against record remains the worst in the Premier League (44.2), pointing towards high-quality chances being offered up. You can’t be that generous to teams towards the top of the Premier League as perhaps it explains why Fulham have taken just one point from eight games against teams in the top six this season.
Arsenal to win and under 4.5 goals at 10/11 with Sky Bet gives a nice boost from the 11/20 available on a straight-away win.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-3 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Arsenal to win and under 4.5 goals (10/11 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Manchester United vs Southampton, Sunday 2pm
When a team is on the end of a hiding there is a theory that their next few fixtures will be all about being defensively secure. Manchester United can be forgiven for their bad second half at the office at Liverpool, where individual errors and huge amounts of fatigue can start to explain the extraordinary collapse rather than too many collective issues. I’m treating that result as an anomaly and not reading too much into it.
Erik ten Hag will be demanding safety-first defending and a clean-sheet mentality here where their attacking game might be sacrificed slightly to make sure Southampton aren’t even given a sniff of an upset.
Although three games is a small sample size to be making too many sweeping statements, Southampton’s physical and defensive output has been improved under Ruben Selles, conceding just one goal as their defensive structure and commitment to the cause seems revigorated. With all that in mind, a low scoring encounter does seem the likely avenue this match will meander down. Under 2.5 goals at 5/4 with Sky Bet looks more than fair enough but I’d go a little further than that and take the 5/2 on offer for a 0-0 at half-time.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0
West Ham vs Aston Villa, Sunday 2pm
I am going to roll out a staple bet on West Ham home games regarding their slow starting nature, especially when the atmosphere is flat. Opposition teams have managed to post two or more shots on target in nine of the last 10 first halves of Premier League games at The London Stadium. The only team that failed to manage that was Everton in their final game under Lampard.
Villa are known for fast starts, having scored nine goals in the opening 15 minutes of Premier League games this season – that’s the joint-most with Brighton. And with another prickly home atmosphere predicted and the potential for the Hammers to be sleepy out of the traps again following their Thursday night trip to Cyprus. I’m happy to back the 8/11 with Sky Bet for the first half shots on target bet to land again in a game where a low-scoring draw is certainly a runner too.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Newcastle vs Wolves, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports
This could be a season-defining game for Newcastle. Eddie Howe’s side are low on confidence, low on goals and arrive at a crossroads for whether they’ll be taking the expressway to the Champions League or a more bumpy route south.
They are easily opposable at 8/13 with Sky Bet based on their malfunctioning attacking performances of late, having scored just three goals in their last eight Premier League games. Teams may have worked them out.
And they don’t come more tactically aware than Julen Lopetegui, who has overseen a huge improvement and has taken 17 points from his 11 Premier League games in charge of Wolves. He’ll have a plan to stifle Howe’s attack, much in the way Bournemouth, Crystal Palace, Leeds and West Ham have all restricted the Toon to just two goals in a set of fixtures a European contender should be posting a much higher return of goals in.
The draw jumps off the page at 11/4 with Sky Bet. Of all Premier League fixtures played 15 or more times, this one has seen the highest percentage end in draws with 10 of those last 15 ending in stalemate. Add another one to that list.