Match highlights of every Premier League game to be shown on the Sky Sports website and app shortly after full-time; watch Newcastle vs Arsenal and Nottingham Forest vs Southampton live on Sky Sports
By Lewis Jones, @_LJones_
Jones Knows takes aim at Sunday and Monday’s remaining Premier League games across the long weekend.
Newcastle vs Arsenal, Sunday 4.30, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
With draws no good for Arsenal, this has the feel of an incident-packed encounter involving two teams with history and a developing needle. The 0-0 draw earlier in the campaign saw the two managers have words on the touchline in a game that produced nine yellow cards, following on from the 2-0 win for Newcastle last season where Arsenal’s top four charge floundered in spectacular fashion.
Mikel Arteta’s boys need to play with bravery and risk to try and become just the third team to beat Newcastle at St James’ Park in the last 24 Premier League fixtures in order to keep tabs on Manchester City.
Eddie’s Howe men, who are averaging 2.9 goals per game over the last nine fixtures, will therefore get plenty of moments to expose an Arsenal defence that remains on the decline having conceded 14 goals in their seven matches. Teams are finding it easier to create quality chances against the Gunners, who have only kept six clean sheets in their last 24 fixtures across all competitions.
Goals may flow regularly at either end, so the 4/5 on both teams scoring and over 2.5 goals does make appeal in a game where Arsenal’s title challenge looks likely to officially end.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-2
West Ham vs Manchester United, Sunday 7pm
Backing opposition teams to make fast starts against West Ham at the London Stadium has been a profitable strategy this season – and it looks a runner again here.
Opposition teams have managed to post two or more shots on target in 13 of the last 15 first halves of Premier League games at the London Stadium. The only two that failed to manage that were Everton in Frank Lampard’s last game and Southampton.
I’d fully expect United to cover their shots on target in the first half line of three or more at 11/10, but I’d go further than that with confident expectations around them starting fast. Erik ten Hag’s side have been leading at the break in six of their last nine fixtures and squandered 1.35 worth of first half expected goals against Brighton on Thursday night. United have also stopped the opposition from scoring a first half goal in 25 of their 33 Premier League games, more than any other side this season.
So, a way of getting a United positive result on your side at a respectable price would be to back United to win the first half at 6/4 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Fulham vs Leicester, Monday 3pm
If Leicester are to go down, they are going down swinging. In the four games under Dean Smith there have been 13 goals scored, working to a 3.25 average – above average but nothing spectacular. However, if you dig into the expected goals data, then those matches have yielded 18.1 goals according to the quality of chances created – that’s 4.5 expected goals per game and the matches have certainly felt end-to-end and a bit chaotic on the eye.
This game could follow suit and the market hasn’t factored in the Smith chaos factor as 4/5 for over 2.5 goals is available with Sky Bet. Leicester have also faced an average of 16.5 shots per game under Smith, with Everton managing to post 24 in that extraordinary game on Monday Night Football. This had led me to the player shots market where Fulham’s most potent attacking weapon, Willian, rates as a juicy bet to fire shots. He’s had 10 in his last three starts with him showcasing all the zip and directness of when he was at his best for Chelsea. The 2/1 with Sky Bet for him to post three or more shots and 11/2 for four or more shots should provide a great run for your money.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2
Brighton vs Everton, Monday 5.30pm
For a team that go off so short in the market, Brighton do come with a warning for those that like to back teams at odds-on in the match result markets. There is an air of inconsistency regarding their ability to find their way past a well-organised low block at home. Fulham beat them 1-0, Nottingham Forest ground out a 0-0 while Crystal Palace and Bournemouth were both only seen off by a solitary goal. The likes of Karou Mitoma and Julio Enciso are frightening talents, but they do lack a bit of ruthlessness in front of goal.
Everton’s aim will be to stay in the game for as long as possible and try to build some momentum from set pieces. That tactic is much easier with Dominic Calvert-Lewin leading the line. Everton to win or draw at 9/4 with Sky Bet stands out at the prices.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Nottingham Forest vs Southampton, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
If Southampton had the authority, strength and fight required to win a football match away at the City Ground – a proper hotbed under the floodlights – then they wouldn’t be cut adrift at the bottom. Games have come and gone. No points have been taken. The end is nigh for them.
Forest, who are aggressive and possess plenty of nastiness to their game, are likely to swallow timid Saints up in the firepit atmosphere.
Steve Cooper’s team have found a formula at home, taking 24 points there this season and have lost just two of their last 13 games at their famous old ground. The home win at 11/10 with Sky Bet certainly is a tempter.
Morgan Gibbs-White remains overpriced in the goalscorer markets too. A player of his talent shouldn’t be 4/1 to score against the basement boys. He averages two shots in home matches this season, scoring three times to a backdrop of 4.12 worth of expected goals, showcasing an underperformance according to quality of chance created.
Also, penalty duties now may fall at his door having scored from the spot against Brighton while Brennan Johnson, who missed earlier in the game, was off the pitch. The 6/1 for Gibbs-White to score in a home win rates as a backable wager.