Match highlights of every Premier League game to be shown on the Sky Sports website and app just after full time; West Ham vs Arsenal, Nottingham Forest vs Man Utd and Leeds vs Liverpool live on Sky Sports
By Lewis Jones, @_LJones_
Jones Knows expects Arsenal to come racing out of the traps against West Ham on Super Sunday as he gives his thoughts on the remaining Premier League games this weekend.
West Ham vs Arsenal, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports
I am going to roll out a staple bet on West Ham home games regarding their slow-starting nature, especially when the atmosphere is flat and after a European night.
Opposition teams have managed to post two or more shots on target in 11 of the last 13 first halves of Premier League games at the London Stadium. The only two that failed to manage that were Everton in Frank Lampard’s last game and Southampton.
I’d fully expect Arsenal to cover their shots on target in the first half line of three or more at 10/11, but I’d go further than that with confident expectations around them starting fast. With no other fixtures to contend with, the Gunners are flying out of the traps despite the pressure of this title race. They’ve gone in at half-time in front in all four of their last four fixtures, including dominating Liverpool in the opening knockings last weekend.
So, a way of getting an Arsenal positive result on your side at a respectable price rather than simply backing the away win at 8/15 would be to back Arsenal to win the first half at 11/10 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-3
Nottingham Forest vs Manchester United, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports
Manchester United should be in businesslike mood. No time for thrills. Just a ‘job done’ mentality.
United’s demanding schedule of playing four games in 11 days – against the backdrop of having played more games (50) than any other team in Europe – is bound to prevent them from being at full throttle. Does that make them vulnerable here at odds-on? Not when looking at their record against teams currently 10th or lower in the table as every single one of United’s away Premier League points have come in those matches, taking 20 from a possible 24.
With the return of Casemiro an added boost, it’s hard to see how a confidence-stricken Forest can truly hurt Erik ten Hag’s men in a game of this nature: United have only conceded four goals in those eight away games against bottom-half teams.
Marcus Rashford’s absence will be felt, though, considering he’s scored 20 goals in 28 appearances since the World Cup and has bagged four goal involvements vs Nottingham Forest in three games across all competitions this season.
A Manchester United win and under 3.5 goals at 11/8 with Sky Bet did tempt me but I’d like the added security of Forest grinding something out at the City Ground, like they have done vs Liverpool, Man City and Chelsea this season. That makes the under 2.5 goals line at Evens look a great way to get plenty of likely correct scores on your side.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-1
Leeds vs Liverpool, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
Come on, own up, who is seriously punting Liverpool here at 4/6 with Sky Bet?
It’s up there with one of most staggeringly short prices of the season. And we must take advantage.
A clear way to diagnose a team with serious mentality and confidence issues is by looking at their away form. Liverpool have lost 12 of 22 away games in all competitions this season – and their record at teams lower than them in the current table is remarkable for a side that came close to winning every single trophy last season.
In eight games, they are winless and have failed to score in six of those matches, including defeats at Wolves, Nottingham Forest, Bournemouth and Brentford.
The overall aggregate score in those matches is 10-3 to the opposition. Astonishing.
Leeds most certainly have the aggression, organisation and raucous stadium required to follow in many of their relegation rivals footsteps and beat Liverpool at home.
Yes, a 5-1 defeat at home to Palace is bound to send huge warning signals out that relegation to the Championship is a strong possibility but – I’ve said it before – when a team is on the end of a bit of a hiding, there is a theory that their next game will be all about being defensively secure. West Ham were spanked 5-1 at home by Newcastle but that result is now a distant memory having followed it up with a gritty but decisive 1-0 win at Fulham.
This will be backs-to-the-wall-type football – but that is enough to beat this Liverpool side away from the comfort blanket of Anfield.
The 5/2 with Sky Bet for Leeds in the ‘draw no bet’ market, meaning we’ll get stakes refunded if it’s a draw and a 5/2 winner if Leeds win, is simply outstanding. Or keep it simple and back the 6/5 for Leeds to win or draw.