Jones Knows is back with Premier League predictions for Sunday’s games…
Manchester City vs Manchester United, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports
Manchester United are rough and tumble now and hard to score against. Will that be enough to stop Erling Haaland? Perhaps.
The match prices look about right to me though, with City hot favourites at 1/3 with Sky Bet. There is no interest from me in that regard but a special new market offered by Sky Bet revolving around player fouls has got my punting enthusiasm levels sparking.
Since the 4-0 drubbing at Brentford, no team has averaged more fouls per-90 minutes than Manchester United (13.5) as Erik ten Hag has resorted to, for now, a no-thrills, quite direct style with the backdrop of aggression and in-your-face defending. It’s probably smart management as something had to change stylistically.
United will have to ruffle the feathers of City’s players to stand a chance in this one and if Jack Grealish gets selected down the left, then United’s right-back Diogo Dalot’s foul count is worth a dabble with Sky Bet. Grealish still actively goes looking for fouls – not quite as much as his Aston Villa days but his average of winning 2.62 fouls per-90 minutes in a City shirt is still a healthy number. Dalot has made at least two fouls in four of his last five Premier League starts for United and will be keen to shutdown Grealish at every opportunity. He’s 8/11 with Sky Bet to make two or more fouls in the match and 9/4 to make three or more. Both are overpriced.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0
Leeds vs Aston Villa, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports
To win a game of football away from home in the Premier League if you are outside the ‘big six’ takes a lot of doing. It’s a big achievement. Yes, the sample size is small but away teams have won just 23 per cent of their games this season which is a big drop to the average away win percentage of around 35 per cent over the last five seasons.
Teams that usually achieve away wins are in confident mood and are comfortable with the structure and tactics of their approach. That’s why I’m scratching my head at how short Aston Villa are to win at Leeds. Steven Gerrard’s team are 2/1 with Sky Bet for victory despite winning just once in their last eight away Premier League matches – a stinking run backed up by some very worrying attacking metrics.
Only Bournemouth have a lower expected goals tally this season than Villa (6.07) as Gerrard still has yet to stumble across a formula that gets the best out of his attacking players. With Lucas Digne and Boubacar Kamara now also unavailable for selection due to injury, Gerrard’s hand is further weakened this weekend. I would be gobsmacked if they left Elland Road with three points and at 4/11 with Sky Bet, Leeds to win or draw this match is an odds-on winner in waiting if tackling short prices is your thing.
Sunday 2nd October 4:00pm
Kick off 4:30pm
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0
Leicester vs Nottingham Forest, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
Leicester have shipped 22 goals already this season. That is some achievement.
It’s the most conceded by any club in their opening seven games of any Premier League season. In fact, you have to go back 57 years for the last time a top division team conceded 22 goals in their first seven games (West Ham in 65-66 – and they still managed to win the World Cup that season?).
Yet, according to the defensive performance data metrics, somehow Nottingham Forest are performing worse than the Foxes at the back as their expected goals against tally of 12.97 is the worst in the Premier League.
So, against such a leaky defence, James Maddison should be at the forefront of punting minds for this encounter. Maddison has 11 goal involvements in his last 10 Premier League appearances since May 11 – only Harry Kane, Erling Haaland and Kevin De Bruyne have produced a heftier output. Of those 11 involvements, seven have been goals, identifying him as Leicester’s most dangerous attacking weapon.
James Maddison of Leicester City celebrates after scoring to make it 1-0 during the Premier League match between Leicester City and Southampton at the King Power Stadium in May last season
The markets haven’t really caught fully up with that fact yet and are allowing him to go off rather chunkier than what would be expected. Here, you can get 6/1 with Sky Bet on him scoring the first goal or 15/8 on him scoring at anytime.