Match highlights of every Premier League game to be shown on the Sky Sports website and app shortly after full-time; watch Everton vs Bournemouth, Leicester vs West Ham and Brighton vs Aston Villa live on Sky Sports Play Super 6 to win £250,000!
By Lewis Jones, @_LJones_
It’s two from three on the final day – which one of Everton, Leicester and Leeds will survive? Our tipster Jones Knows sees drama aplenty at Goodison Park.
Everton vs Bournemouth, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports
Can you really trust this Everton side at 4/9 with Sky Bet to win at home without Dominic Calvert-Lewin?
Goodison Park is a monstrous venue, capable of changing the momentum of a game but Bournemouth are a dangerous animal possessing enough firepower to rate them as good for at least a goal. That would mean Everton need two or more goals to win this match to guarantee survival – something they’ve done just once at home all season in 18 matches.
An emotional afternoon awaits the Evertonians where they may need favours from elsewhere to preserve their 69-year status as a top-flight club.
Getting involved in the Everton centre-backs’ attacking output has to be a play in a game of this nature. Firstly, you’ll get a great run for your money as every set piece will see the likes of Yerry Mina and James Tarkowski head forward – even more so if they are chasing the game. And once up there, these two are reliable attacking options. They are both around 16/1 with Sky Bet to score first. That’ll do for me.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Leicester vs West Ham, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports
Dean Smith spoke of Leicester’s 0-0 draw with Newcastle as potentially a momentum builder ahead of this clash. Well, if conceding 2.19 worth of expected goals, posting just one shot on goal and being unable to string more than two passes together can be flipped to create positive momentum, then he’s a better manager than I give him credit for.
This Leicester team look done to me.
The midfield lacks balance and their forward players have caved playing in the pressure-cooker of a relegation scrap.
David Moyes won’t want to lose West Ham’s current rhythm and chemistry ahead of their European final on June 7, so I’d expect them to be near full-throttle and to get ample opportunities to hit Leicester on the counter attack. Since the turn of the year, the Hammers have beaten all five of the teams below them in the table – expect them to make that six as the “Champions to Championship” tag becomes a reality for the Foxes.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Leeds vs Tottenham, Sunday 4.30pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Leeds have been here before just 12 months ago. They became the first team in 12 seasons to jump out of the relegation zone to safety on the final day. Can history repeat itself? Unlikely.
Sam Allardyce’s side are 10/1 with Sky Bet to somehow overturn the points and goal deficit on Everton and survive. An Everton draw, Leicester not to win and a three-or-more goal margin of victory would be enough, but we are entering ‘classic final day’ survival territory here and this Leeds team don’t inspire me on that front.
They’ve won just three of their last 23 Premier League games and even against an unmotivated Tottenham team, it’s hard to see them sparking into life in front of a crowd that will be resigned to their relegation fate.
Don’t be too down though, there is a bet to be had to lift spirits.
Robin Koch has moved into midfield under Allardyce and if he plays there once again, he’s a super value play to make two or more fouls at 2/1 with Sky Bet – as he did against West Ham last weekend.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Brentford vs Manchester City, Sunday 4.30pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
It’s proven frustrating that I’ve not been able to write about Erling Haaland much this season due to him never being remotely backable due to his weekly prohibitive odds. But finally, there’s a betting angle to be had with the 10/1 with Sky Bet about him scoring a header catching my eye.
If you hadn’t noticed, he’s a phenomenal footballer – perhaps the greatest we’ve ever seen on these shores. It’s 52 goals in 51 appearances this season which makes him the top scorer of players in major European Leagues. But crucially for our angle, 51 of those 52 goals scored have come from inside box and eight of his 52 goals have been headers.
That equates to 15 per cent of all his goals which in turn correlates around a 5/1 chance of him scoring a header – give or take a few percent for strength of opposition. I think that probability could be trending upwardly too looking at his last 10 appearances as his teammates seem to be presenting him with more headed chances.
He’s had 11 headed attempts in his last 10 games, scoring in the win over Everton and having one chalked off at Brighton, meaning 31 per cent of all his headers at goal this season have come in the last 10 matches.
With his thirst for goals still high, that 10/1 on offer looks a tantalising prospect to attack.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2 | JONES KNOWS BEST BET: Erling Haaland to score a header (10/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Aston Villa vs Brighton, Sunday 4.30pm
The traditional ‘big six’ should be quaking in their boots over these two football clubs next season. Newcastle have broken in – and these two are on that same trajectory.
Its job done for Brighton for the season – but not for Aston Villa, who know a win will guarantee them a spot in the Europa Conference League next season. That motivation factor added to a quite extraordinary home record of late, makes them very appealing here at Evens with Sky Bet.
The win over Tottenham meant a seventh straight win on the bounce at Villa Park, including dismantling Newcastle 3-0 along the way. Just one goal has been conceded in those matches with Villa’s high line at home – written about extensively in this column from an early stage – is causing big problems for opposition teams to figure out.
The profitable opposition offside betting lines are now a thing of the past now the odds compilers have cottoned on but there is value backing Villa to win this one in a low scoring encounter, which rows against the market which has the goal expectancy at over 2.5. However, every one of Villa’s last 14 games have fallen under the 3.5 goal line with the overall average sitting at exactly two match goals per game. Combining a Villa win and under 2.5 goals at 11/2 looks a huge slice of value to my maths.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0
Manchester United vs Fulham, Sunday 4.30pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Erik ten Hag will have one eye on the FA Cup, so expect a potentially weakened Manchester United team which could leave them vulnerable. Whether Fulham possess the consistency and firepower though to win the game does put me off taking a chance at the away win but they can certainly contribute to what should be a high-scoring encounter. We’ve seen results like West Brom 5-5 Manchester United, Stoke City 6-1 Liverpool, Hull 1-7 Tottenham and Crystal Palace 5-3 Bournemouth on the final day in the last 10 seasons.
With that in mind, I like the look of this clash going down a crazy goal avenue. Over 6.5 goals at 12/1 with Sky Bet is worth a tickle at a monster price, as are some mad correct scores like United to win 5-3 (100/1) and 5-2 (50/1).
SCORE PREDICTION: 5-3
Southampton vs Liverpool, Sunday 4.30pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Trent Alexander-Arnold remains a player to invest in when it comes to his attacking output through shots and goals. Yes, I bang on about it every week but while the prices remain very much in favour, it’s a case of keep punting him.
From his new hybrid role where he plays more centrally, Liverpool’s chief creator is now becoming a serious shots and goals merchant – and I’d expect his numbers to rocket next year in a far more settled season for the Reds.
Here, he should be given plenty of space to meander into and should add to his shot tally of 11 in his last six games with 11/8 with Sky Bet on offer for him to register two or more shots. Every single one of those efforts have come from outside the area so the 11/4 on him to hit the target from outside the box and the 15/2 on him scoring from that range – like he did vs Leicester – are also worth some serious interest.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-3
Chelsea vs Newcastle, Sunday 4.30pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Positivity has been thin on the ground in what has been a miserable season for Chelsea but the performances of Lewis Hall – a product of the youth academy – shows that there is a wealth of talent to work with. His explosive runs down the left flank and quality delivery has shone through in the last three fixtures, which bodes well for next season where he’ll surely provide competition for Ben Chilwell.
In what should be an end-to-end, free flowing encounter, Hall is worth a look across his attacking output. He has created five chances in his last three games to a backdrop of 0.75 worth of expected assists – that showcases the level of chance he’s been providing. One will surely drop soon, so the 4/1 with Sky Bet stands out as a value wager.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-3
Arsenal vs Wolves, Sunday 4.30pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Granit Xhaka’s time at Arsenal appears to be coming to an end, and there’s no chance of him going quietly. This, if reports are to be believed, looks set to be his final appearance for the Gunners with a move to Bayer Leverkusen in the pipeline. He’s set for a great send-off in what should be, despite falling short in the title race, a celebratory atmosphere at the Emirates. And we can profit from it.
Expect cries of “shoooot” at every avenue when Xhaka moves into promising positions and there could even be the chance of him being allowed to take a penalty if one is awarded in a dead rubber game. Xhaka’s attacking output has spiked this season in his role on the left of the midfield three, so he’s always bordered on being overpriced in a variety of markets but with the added farewell factor thrown into the mix, he’s now a bet to consider.
I think keeping it simple and taking the 4/1 with Sky Bet on him scoring in the match – something he’s done in home matches against Leeds, Southampton, Leicester and Tottenham this season – makes sense.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-0
Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest, Sunday 4.30pm
You can always guarantee goals on the final day of a Premier League season. In the last 10 Premier League final days, the goal-per-game ratio has always sailed above the season average for goals per matchday on the final day. Teams are more likely to play with a bit more freedom in a no-pressure environment and with fans back in the stadium too, that only increases the possibility of attack-minded football. This game should follow that trend.
The goals-line does mirror the goal-heavy likelihood, so it’s worth chasing something at a bigger price, and the 11/1 on Eberechi Eze and Morgan Gibbs-White both finding the net may run close. Both are on penalties which is a great start but both are dripping with confidence and plenty of bravado after a fine end to the season.
Eze, called up by Gareth Southgate this week, has scored six goals in his last seven appearances whilst Gibbs-White has three in his last six. Such is their skillset, they will revel in a game of this nature.